UFC Ultimate Fight Night 5 Odds and Predictions
Here is a breakdown of my picks for UFN5, which takes place Wednesday, June 28th at the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. You can catch all the action live on Spike TV from 8pm to 10pm (EST).
Anderson “The Spider” Silva -240 vs. Chris Leben +220
My pick: Silva
As much as I love Leben and his concrete chin, I gotta take The Spider in this one. He’s deadly in the clinch and I think his conditioning will be better. Anderson has never been (T)KO’d in his career, and I don’t think that will change in this contest. I say Silva wins by unanimous decision, leaving Leben a bloody mess in the process.
Stephan Bonnar -200 vs. Rashad Evans +180
My pick: Evans
I’d love to see Bonnar pound Rashad into the ground, but I don’t think that’s going to happen. Bonnar has proven he’s got a lot of heart, but I feel Rashad has the advantage on the feet, and I doubt either fighter has any intentions of taking this one to the canvas. I predict a rather boring match, with Rashad taking home yet another decision victory.
Mark “The Machine” Hominick -145 vs. Jorge Gurgel +135
My pick: Hominick
If you read my predictions post for TUF3 finale, you already know I’m bias towards Canadian fighters, especially those being produced by Team Tompkins down in Southern Ontario. The truth is this fight could go either way. Hominick is the better striker, while Gurgel has made a living off forcing opponents to tap out. I think it’s a coin-flip, but I’m rooting for The Machine.
Jason Lambert -180 vs. Branden Lee Hinkle +170
My pick: Lambert
This bout promises to be a slugfest. Both competitors possess heavy hands and solid chins. I give the edge to Lambert because of his superior submission skills. I expect this one to stay on the feet, but if it does hit the ground then Lambert is the more dangerous of the two. Also, Lambert has been fighting at 205 lbs for quite some time, where as Hinkle has to drop some serious pounds to make weight for this bout. I’m guessing Lambert wins by TKO (referee stoppage) via strikes.
Josh Koscheck -440 vs. Dave Menne +400
My pick: Menne
This is my heavy underdog pick of the night. Koscheck is easily the fan favorite, but TUF1 fame can only get you so far. Menne is a submission specialist with a mountain of experience. I have no idea why he’s such an underdog, but I think he’s gonna finish Koscheck before the end of the second round.
Jonathan Goulet -196 vs. “The Silent Assassin” Luke Cummo +181
My pick: Goulet
Goulet is coming off a devastating 11 second KO loss to Dwayne Ludwig, but before that the Canadian had won 10 straight bouts dating back to 2003. Look for Goulet to get back on track with a victory over The Silent Assassin.
Jon Fitch -216 vs. Thiago Alves +196
My pick: Fitch
I gotta give the edge to Fitch, who hasn’t lost a contest since 2002. Look for Fitch to utilize his reach advantage and bust up Thiago with the left jab early on, followed by sound ground and pound to finish him off.
